# Flowcharts and the Delphi Method

Flowchart
Problem 1: You’re desperately in love with another person, but that person doesn’t know you exist. You decide to skip the whole getting-to-know-you routine, and cast a love spell.
Assume you have a book containing the rituals, plus the ingredients lists. The sex of the target determines which list you’ll use; there’s one for men, and a separate one for women. The first step is to choose the appropriate list, and check that you have everything on hand. One common ingredient on both lists is Eye of Newt (EoN). If you don’t have EoN but have Tongue of Cobra (ToC), then you can use that, but only if the target is male. Otherwise, you have to have all the ingredients on the list, with no substitutions allowed. If you don’t, then that’s the end of the procedure, at least for the time being.
If you have all the ingredients, then check the phase of the Moon. If the subject is male, the Moon should be waxing (New Moon through the day before Full). If the subject is female, the Moon should be waning (Full Moon through the day before New). If the time of the month isn’t auspicious, then wait. Once the Moon is right, perform the ritual in either Latin or Greek, depending upon whether the target is male (Latin) or female (Greek). This is the end of the procedure. Good luck!
Hint: The most efficient flowchart has two main paths, one for male and the other for female targets.

Problem 2: Complete the first round of a three-round Delphi decision-making exercise. Before reading further, please be sure you’ve read the discussion about the Delphi process on this Module’s Homepage. It includes information that is not repeated here.
Topic: For the sake of simplicity, choose a future outcome, such as The likelihood that X will be elected (to some office) in 2016, that can be expressed as a single-number probability, or likelihood.

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